Thursday, November 5, 2009

Looking Into my Crystal Ball

First of all predicting future climate and weather is not easy. As I have said before climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time (usually thirty years). By averaging we are smoothing out the unpredictable nature of weather. This makes our predictions of climate reliable.

All scientists can do is use our history to infer what the future will hold if this goes unsolved (meaning that humans do not make any changes to their lives). Climate change will have impacts anywhere form “disruptive to catastrophic.” More severe weather is expected only because it has occurred more often now. Changes will differ from region to region, but one universal problem the world is predicted to see is a decrease in crop yield. This is a serious problem because we already live in a world filled with “food shortages and famine.”

Even if the United States takes steps to reduce emissions the problem is going to get worse. Under law the United States Global Change Research program is required to report on the effects of climate change every ten years. Many effects are the same that we have seen for many years like extreme weather, heat waves and droughts due to the increase of greenhouse gases, and erosion. “But the speed and severity of these effects in the future are expressed with less certainty in the report and will depend to some extent on how quickly the United States and other nations move to reduce emissions.” How severe these impacts are, is entirely up to us and the actions we take to reduce emissions.

According to a report issued by the United States Global Change Research Program global warming is undoubtedly caused by humans. “Climate changes are underway and include increased stresses on water supplies, challenges to livestock and crop production, risks to coastal areas from rising sea levels and storm surges, health risks, quality of life issues in urban areas and permanent changes to entire ecosystems.” The Southwestern part of the United States has had the most severe reactions. Overall this is a time sensitive topic. We need to make changes before it is too late.

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